Events

New Events

Environmental Events in Pembrokeshire

Invitation to Pembrokeshire Organic Group meeting Friday 25th November at Nant-y-ffin.

The speaker at the next meeting will be Patrick Holden. After many years at the helm of the Soil Association Patrick has established the Sustainable Food Trust. Food security in the 21st century will be the theme of his presentation and will look at the challenges to Welsh farmers posed by climate change, resource depletion and food security. It promises to be a most interesting and thought provoking evening. Please come along to the Nant y Ffin hotel, Llandissilio at 7.30pm on Friday 25 November.

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Renewable Energy Trail on Sunday 21 August 2011 more details here

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The TENP AGM which will take place on the 20th January 2011 in the Queen’s Hall, Narberth at 7pm and is followed, at 7:30pm, by presentations and discussion on the theme of ‘Success for a Change’ .This will provide a few TENP members with the opportunity to present their success stories and plans for the future and to discuss the impact they have had.

The key note speaker is Andy Middleton who has a wealth of experience and a firm belief in the importance of local action. We very much hope that you can attend and contribute to the discussion.

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Towards a Sustainable Society Socially responsible, resource sensitive and flourishing took place on Thursday 11 November 2010 at the Nant-y-Ffin Hotel, Llandissilio, Pembrokeshire. A press release about the conference can be read here

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MCCIP has published a new peer-reviewed briefing note on ‘Ocean uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2)’. This note focuses on the important role that the oceans play as a store of CO2, how exchanges of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere may be affected by climate change and our efforts to monitor any changes. It is a useful addition to our previous TENP event in early December and can be read here .

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The previous TENP EVENT on 8th December 09 in Narberth, was on The Challenge of Coastal Change with presentations by Richard Ellis, of the National Trust, and Dr S Bevan, of Swansea University.

Members, and staff from CCW, PCF, and WAG were treated to a daunting insight into the prospects for coastal areas of Pembrokeshire.

Richard Ellis is the Head Warden at the National Trust and has been monitoring the coastlines in Pembrokeshire for many years as a third is owned by the National Trust. Richard’s key message is that sea level rise is happening, and has been since the last Ice Age – it has been measured in places for 200 years, and coastal erosion will increase over the coming decades! At Holyhead, for example, the sea level has risen by 20cms since 1930. The UK Government's Climate Impact Programme predicts a sea level rise of 70-90 cms by 2100, possibly higher, with more storms and the resultant flooding.

The fact is that National Trust properties are at risk and decisions have to be made regarding their future (see Coastal Risk Assessment, Phase 2, ‘Shifting Shores’ which identifies ‘hot spots’).

Richard referred to Shoreline Management Plans which are currently being updated and consulted on, although few in the audience were aware of these documents which cover the whole of the Welsh coastline, and none was aware that the consultation is currently taking place! (www.WestofWalesSMP.org, and www.SouthWalescoast.org).

Richard explained that the SMP has 4 options:

- Hold the existing coastline,

- Advance the line,

- Managed retreat

- No active intervention

and that each section of coastline will be allocated a policy option over the following periods , 0-20, 20-50, and 50-100 years.

From this stark introduction Richard then treated the audience to a description and assessment of the prospects for the coastline in 4 different locations in Pembrokeshire.

To summarise:

Abermawr: the rolling barrier beach will be breached,

Abereiddi: the sea defence is part of the problem, more analysis is needed but it is likely that either the sea wall will have to be much bigger and prominent in the landscape or the sea defence should be removed and part of the car park lost.

Stackpole/Botherston Lakes: the sea will invade the lakes by over topping the dam and through percolation of the underlying limestone and the coastline will return to that of the 1850’s. However, as the Lakes are a Special Area of Conservation the National Trust will do all they can to protect the current position to enable the precious freshwater features to survive as long as possible, perhaps by retreating up the system.

Newgale: the coast road, the A487, will have to be redirected inland and the coast and beach allowed to return to its ‘wild’ or natural condition!

The theme that Richard expressed is that ‘man-made’ incursions beyond the natural coastline over the last 150 years are likely to be lost and the coastline will return to its 1850 line by 2100. Attempts to defend the coastline will be difficult, extensive and ‘patchy’. Some homes will have to be abandoned and parts of some communities may have to relocated, eg, Solva, as currently being planned in East Anglia with the local authority buying the properties and leasing them back to the inhabitants. I have no idea whether this is a possibility at Solva – wrong to suggest this – I mentioned it as a smart way that some LA’s were starting to think about this.

How the response to this situation will be planned and managed is not clear. The SMPs are being drawn up by the County Council and being consulted on, however it is not clear which organisation is responsible for flood defences. Certainly, none of the speakers nor the audience could identify the lead body!!.

From this ‘local’ dimension Dr Suzanne Bevan introduced the audience to the ‘global’ trends, particularly the process of glacier ‘ice-melt’ and the likely impact on seal levels. Dr Bevan identified the accelerating trend of sea levels rising by 1.88mm per annum over the last century but by 3.3mm per annum since 1993. Dr Bevan confirmed Richard’s prediction that sea levels would rise by 1m by 2100, perhaps more.

The complexity of measuring seal levels was evident from the fact that sea levels across the planet can vary by 100-200m due to variations in gravity and thermal expansion. The sea is not flat!.

The possible impact of glacier melt was put into perspective. 40 % of seal level rise is due to the thermal expansion of water but the melting of glaciers would have the following impact :

Antarctica= a 61metre rise.

Greenland= a 7metre rise

All Mountain Glaciers= a 7 metre rise.

Currently:

Mountain Glaciers are contributing 0.88mm per annum

Greenland, 0.2mm per annum

Antarctica, 0.2mm per annum.

The real concern is that with climate change the rate of decrease of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating. Researchers understand the mechanics of the melting process but do not know why, hence making predictions very difficult.

Richards’ Powerpoint presentation can be viewed here . Dr Suzanne Bevan’s presentation can be viewed here .